10 Little Indians : The race for the 2016 Olympic team.

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Must suck to have such potential and just one day be done due to a bad back. Lets be real about Foberg, she had no shot but Bailie Key if given a fair shot would have been one of the 5 named to the team if based on what you give but at last, what Marta and Steve want is what happens.

I am pretty sure I used this same headline in 2008.lol


Sorry for the lack of blogging but work has been hell and lets be real, this team will be decided on everything not related to gymnastics anyway so why even bother? God I sound like a broken record every 4 years but seriously don’t you just get disgusted with this sport and  the politics of it all? These two situations are “injury” related but in the end it wouldn’t have made a difference anyway. Not sure how I still can support this sport knowing all that I do.

113 Responses to “10 Little Indians : The race for the 2016 Olympic team.”

  1. Cupquaked Says:

    My team prediction is Simone, Aly, Gabby, Laurie, and Madison/Ashton. With Reagan, Skinner, and Kocian/Ashton as alternates. I love love love Brenna and her fight but unless she just hits it out of the park at nationals and trials and other screw up, I don’t see her on this team. But part of me is still hoping.

    • JAS4 Says:

      I think that there will probably be a UB specialist Kocian/Ashton and the last spot will be dependant on who is chosen as the UB specialist. If it’s Kocian then I think Skinner may be on the team because they complement well for prelims. Skinner could likely make VT finals and possibly FX if Aly or Simone were to mess up and Kocian could do UB and BB. If Ashton is the UB specialist then I think Regan may be on the team as well because they complement each other well for prelims (or Aly and Ashton complement if they decide to use Regan for AA instead). It’s also possible that Laurie or Maggie could make the team but it’s hard to tell without seeing them first. I also agree that which ever UB specialist isn’t chosen will be an alternate along with two AA gymnast capable of filling in anywhere.

      • Mim Says:

        How in heck is fragile Kocian going to handle the pre-Olympic death camp? She’s better on bars than Ashton but what if she breaks??

        Bailie being out is good for Maggie, but a healthy Laurie isn’t great for Maggie. Although, if Maggie has recovered well and Laurie continues to have niggly patella issues, that’s good news for Maggie and maybe Ragan and Mykayla too.

        I don’t see Brenna coming close to being on the team but hey, at least she gave it a shot and she’ll know in her mind she gave it her all.

        I agree with those who said in the previous comments that Gabby’s trained smart and not hard. We’ve now all seen what happens to girls who bust their guts.

        I’m a bit of an Alyssa fan girl after Classics. Shame she doesn’t have more difficulty or stronger AA skills.

      • sanitynmotion Says:

        Doesn’t Ashton score better than Kocian? At least in the US. And Ashton has been on a world team before and did well. Kocian’s 2015 win shouldn’t count.

    • dianajc99 Says:

      How many people actually believe Key is too injured to compete?

      • gymtruthteller Says:

        I think its mental. Yes a bad back hurts but plenty of gymnasts have those. All of 93 and 94 Miller was being worked on during meets yet Key can’t handle the pain? I guess it’s what champions are made of vs kids probably just fed up with it all.

      • Mim Says:

        Maybe I’m too much conspiracy theorist now but I just find it too difficult to believe that she’s suddenly injured again. Maybe she has been injured all this time, who knows. I just can’t believe that I let myself believe she’d be back and I’m embarrassingly so disappointed. I can’t believe how invested I was in her haha.

        If these gymnasts are treated like replaceable commodities with several backup gymnasts waiting in the wings when they break, I guess it is not at all surprusing.

        I swear I will be praying for Simone every night until August, I don’t think I could handle more bad news.

      • Tortuga Says:

        I think she was really injured. Why else would she not compete all spring season? Kim would be crazy to think she could just keep her home that long without actual injury and everything be completely fine. Pretty sure Martha said there was no way she could make it without more senior international experience. Which I think she should have made the world’s team last year. I’m still just confused why she went to Classics to verify if Martha already had this talk with them at the last camp. She either let the mental game get to her or is really injured.

      • gymbot Says:

        It has to be a back injury. It’s total BS if it isn’t. Along the lines of what Totruga is saying, I can hear Martha telling Kim that she’s not tested this year… but what BS. She is one of the best tested athletes. As a Junior and a first year senior, she was everywhere, and competed very well, all season long, each season. I don’t think Key ever fell. Someone can correct me if I’m wrong – but I don’t think Key ever missed a routine at an elite meet.

      • gymtruthteller Says:

        Key fell on beam at Nationals last year If I remember correctly. I am also pretty sure she’s fallen before on other events

      • Exgymgurl Says:

        I told everyone months ago that bailie was off to college. After she didn’t make the world team she just kind of peaced out like Kyla. She just doesn’t want it anymore. None of you believed me. I bet anything she enters UF in January instead of waiting a year, because she’s done with elite. She didn’t believe anymore and Kim couldn’t make her believe.

      • Katie Says:

        lol @exgymgirl, you are right! i refused to believe you about kyla and i refused to believe you about bailie, but you were right both times.
        Although, I do think that Bailie was still fighting for it up until Classics and maybe then they finally saw the writing on the wall.

      • Tortuga Says:

        I think we all just got wrapped up in wishful thinking. None of us really wanted Kyla or Baillie to be out of the picture and chose not to believe it till it was too late. Plus Kim kept Baillie’s true status secret so people wouldn’t count her out just yet.

      • Gymnast41 Says:

        Unfortunately I did believe you exgymgirl, I knew something was up..but isn’t bailie just becoming a senior in HS? I mean maybe she can graduate a semester early and go off to UF? Lord knows they could use her and baumann coming in early

      • gymbot Says:

        I chose not to believe, but I do remember you making those points before.

      • sanitynmotion Says:

        I remember you stating exactly that – that Bailey was off to college. I totally chose wishful thinking. But you were right.

        Same with Kyla too.

  2. dianajc99 Says:

    I don’t see a link on there youtube page. Does anybody know id P.training will be broadcast.

    • H Says:

      I have heard it is not, only for juniors. But they will upload videos after the podium training.

  3. Exgymgurl Says:

    Tampon gymnastics list is almost the same as what NBC put out except they have Brenna instead of Baumann. I think either Kocian or locklear has a spot and the other is alternate. My money is on locklear because she has no NCAA commitment which means she could go pro which we know Steve penny loves. Besides the three musketeers, either Marta goes with another aa ( Maggie or Laurie) or another specialist ( skinner / smith). I don’t believe smith ranks that high. If they weren’t planning on sending Laurie I don’t know why she would have gotten a new floor routine from usagymnastics. Maggie has to have her amanar back to have a shot. We shall see at nationals.

    • Gymnast41 Says:

      She may be doing her amanar…saw a vid of her doing it a couple days ago at TCT’s showcase and it looked just as bad as last year, but doesn’t look like it’s giving her trouble

    • Rocío Martínez López Says:

      I would have said Laurie or Maggie too for another AA spot, but I think now that with their injuries (we don’t know how Maggie really is after her tear and, if I am not mistaken, Laurie had a knee problem as well, didn’t she?) Reagan has more chances.

      • exgymgurl Says:

        Being analytical here, The committee has already picked the three musketeers. They offer for team finals two vaults ( and the fourth), two bar routines ( one for TF and one back up for TF to rest Simone if they can), three beam routines ( yes they have all been solid on beam), and three floor routines (possibly two if they rest gabby on floor in TF.

        This leaves us to fill for TF ( counting 3 up and an extra) one vault, and one bar routine ( preferred to rest simone), a back up or third best for beam and a back up for floor.

        This is why I think its possible a Skinner could pop in with an amanar and decent fourth floor with a Kocian Lockler filling in on beam. Ragan does not fill the Vault floor person. She is like the Finnegan of this quad where her strengths don’t fit.

        Maggie or Laurie could also fill the vault floor but would need an amanar and to beat one of the three musketeers on floor. The key is whoever of Laurie, Maggie and Skinner can beat one of Aly, Gabby, on both Vault and floor will make the team. Beat Aly, or Gabby on vault floor and beam and you are an even better lock. Both Maggie and Laurie can beat Aly on bars which also gives them the edge over skinner.

        This is just good analytical bookkeeping. Based on Locklear and Kocian performing whoever among them is the most consistent on beam and bars gets a spot.

        That’s it. Alternates are ( Locklear / Kocian), ( Maggie / Laurie), and probably Smith and not Skinner because marta will want Ragan to continue, unless she picks four alternates which again would not surprise me. I think originally Alicia was an alternate and declined because that would have been a much cleaner slate of the four of them as alternates.

      • Rocío Martínez López Says:

        Your explanations are great, exgymgurl. I think that Laurie and Maggie are better options, but I am skeptical about their state. Pre-injury Maggie could easily beat Gabby in almost everything (the only reason why she wasn’t on AA final last year was because Martha didn’t let her do bars on quals and her scores in team finals were higher than Gabby’s), but she had a very important injury and I am not sure she is at her formal level. Laurie seems to have knee problems too. Skinner would have better scores in vault and probably floor (I am not sure about this point…I haven’t seen Skinner’s floor in a long time) but USA is already the strongest on floor just with Simone and Aly. I would pick a beam specialist with a decent floor routine if I get an UB especialist just so Gabby wouldn’t have to go up in team finals. That’s where I think Reagan can be more useful, because I don’t remember Skinner’s floor being that impressive and I think Gabby can achieve a similar score, if Aly gets her Amanar back, her vault isn’t really needed and she is far away from vault medals in my opinion. I think is more dangerous to let Gabby up beam in team final than to take a vault/floor specialist. But I am still unsure, as it depends of Laurie and Maggie’s state. Do you know if there are any way to see the P&G championships outside USA?

      • gymbot Says:

        This is the only info:

        NBC Live Extra. Live simulcast coverage of all four nights of competition will be available through NBC Live Extra on iOS and Android devices, or online at nbcsports.com/live-extra

        The youtube is only for juniors, so there isn’t a way to watch in the US without a cable subscription.

        The routines are usually posted within minutes of happening. Eventually, the entire webcast will probably be posted by USAG. If not by USAG, by nastiafantake## on youtube.

      • Rocío Martínez López Says:

        Thank you, gymbot! I’ll try to see the posting, but NBC doesn’t allow me to see anything live from Spain.😦

      • H Says:

        @Rocio, You can watch championship on youtube, the USA gymnastics have already put up videos for an international audience. Seniors and juniors:-)

      • Rocío Martínez López Says:

        Thank you, H! I thought that they were just broadcasting the Juniors on YouTube!🙂

      • gymbot Says:

        Ah sorry Rocio! I copied that info from their media announcement which didn’t mention international feeds

    • gymbot Says:

      Hey Exgymgurl. I decided to look at the 2016 numbers. I thought about going to look at 2015 numbers as well but it’s too much work.

      I made two assumptions, that we’re replacing scores if Aly doesn’t fall on vault or bars – so Aly’s totals don’t include her big mistakes. I also assumed that I did have to include missed routines from the other gymnasts.

      Anyway, not only was your original team logical, it makes sense math wise. If adding just one person to the team of Biles, Raisman, and Douglas, adding Kocian nets the team 1.375 points (1 routine Classics). Adding The average score for Locklear’s 5 routines this year is 1.26. Choosing a low scoring amanar from Skinner (4 first vaults) only adds 0.141 to the TF total. This is because Douglas’ DTY has scored basically the same as Skinner’s amanars.

      In fact, if adding a single gymnast for contributing only in team finals based on their average 2016 scores, the order is Kocian, Locklear, Nichols (.959), Hernandez (0.876), Baumann (0.718), Smith (.665), Gowey (.525), Dowell (.361), Skinner, Schild (0.092). Amelia Hundley can’t improve the TF score.

      Maybe Brenna Dowell can “erase” her fall at Pac Rims EF with 4 hit routines at champs and trials, she could move up the rankings here. Everyone else has only hit routines in this group already, so I don’t expect the order to change much here.

      After Kocian is added and Biles isn’t dropped from the bars rotation, for the sake of contributing in TF, the order is Baumann (0.595 on beam and .123 on floor), Nichols (0.573 on floor, and 0.078 on beam), Hernandez (.511 on beam, 0.023 on Floor), Locklear (0.51 on bars), Smith (0.29 on beam), Skinner (0.141 for amanar), Dowell (0.06 on floor). Rachel Gowey and Schild cannot increase the score if Kocian is on the team.

      Assuming you drop Biles from the line-up and add Kocian, the highest team total is achieved by taking Locklear, Hernandez, Nichols, Smith, Gowey, and then Dowell. This basically reflects their utility on bars. This team score depending who you add only changes by about 6 tenths between Locklear and Dowell. Locklear, Hernandez, Nichols and Smith are within 3 tenths of each other.

      By the numbers and dropping Simone from bars, Hernandez is a nice option. They don’t have to risk Aly on bars or Douglas on beam and floor.

      If they take someone who is absolutely healthy, could serve as back-up and increases the team score, Smith edges out Gowey and Dowell.

      • gymbot Says:

        So basically, all that math and it’s basically the same thing – only Skinner doesn’t add much to the team score, although maybe a minor vault medal is worth it. A conspiracy theory reason for why Skinner should go includes keeping Aly in the floor finals – since only Nichols has posted scores higher than her average score 2015 score.

      • H Says:

        Great, and very interesting to read your analysis @gymboat and @exgymgirl.
        But, as you said gymbot (I just feel for pointing out, if I am not wrong, since I prefer Locklear:) is that Kocian has done one (1) UB routine in 2016. Locklear has done five (5) and she scored higher than Kocian under the same judges (classic).

      • gymbot Says:

        You’re right in your comments. I guess, keep your fingers crossed for locklear. It could very well be her.

      • Exgymgurl Says:

        I wouldn’t count Madison’s woga classic scores I would only look at competition this year for the locklear / Kocian duel. Kocian has had a wrist issue since the last worlds also. My opinion is that she will implode with injury before trials, she said today she’s training vault and floor. Someone is trying to break her or she’s over speaking. Also keep in mind they have camp validation scores they also average in for consistency. Locklear has been amazing at camp from what I’ve heard while Kocian has been out.

        USA Gymnastics has Maggie videos up for bars and beam PT, rumor has her competing floor and bars. Regardless, Kocian and locklear are neck and neck and it will come down to who has the best Classics, Pg and trials and PT, Marta watches training.

        I personally give the edge to Maggie if she’s fierce over Laurie. Not sure why just my gut feeling. They all need to be healthy.

      • gymtruthteller Says:

        Laurie is being protected by marta even tho she has done nothing to merit it. That means Marta wants her on this team. It’s the same thing she did for Nastia 4 years ago and didn’t do for Alica, Bridget Sloan or Shawn at all but I agree with you about Laurie. There is something wimpy about her. She seems weak and maybe that’s why she has to be protected.

      • gymbot Says:

        Laurie’s got tape around her knee, maybe she also damaged her meniscus… isn’t that also Nichols problem from this spring? They both look great in training.

      • Mim Says:

        I heard (sorry I can’t remember where I saw it or read it!) Laurie injured her patella, so presumably her knee had a minor break?

      • Gymbot Says:

        Thanks Mim

      • Cee Says:

        Praying for Locklear! I’m a big fan after the Classic, she was stunning there.

    • gymbot Says:

      Also, while I’m at it. Here are the AA ranks by average of all scored routines:

      Biles 62.600
      Douglas 59.8
      Nichols 59.699
      Hernandez 59.500
      Smith 58.937
      Raisman 58.857
      Gowey 58.300
      Dowell 58.188
      Baumann 58.000
      Skinner 57.300

      Raisman is 2nd with 59.865 if you don’t include her fall on bars (classics) or her crashed amanar (jesolo). Dowell can pass Gowey if you don’t include her fall on bars at pac rims.

      The numbers are also all subject to change, as the sampling includes only 5 meets, and only Smith, Hernandez, Skinner, Locklear, and Raisman competed at 3 – so some gymnast’s averages represent their only scores.

  4. dianajc99 Says:

    Norah’s OFFICIALLY out.

  5. sanitynmotion Says:

    GTT you’d make us so sad if you stop supporting the sport – the blog is like my happy escape from work!

    Yes the sport is sucky from a political standpoint but they all are becoming that way – you can even see how the timed sports are succumbing to certain tricks and up the sleeve shit.

    I feel like Bailey took the Shawn route of 2012. I really didn’t see her staying back like that. She must have had a come to Jesus talk with Kim, and Kim must have felt like it was either Regan or nobody, and she needs to put all her cards on Regan because Marta told her it wasn’t gonna be Bailey.

    Totally sucks.

    • gymtruthteller Says:

      Every 4 years I just get bored and fed up. Maybe I should become a 4 year fan:)

  6. sanitynmotion Says:

    Can someone tell me how Skinner is useful on floor? I thought she didn’t score well?

    How does Regan score on floor? I thought she was OK, right? Could be used in a 3 up 3 count or no? I really feel like USAG would not want to have to use Gabby’s floor in TFs.

    And finally – Baumann. Based on Exgymgurl’s analysis, she might have a shot if her floor is scored well. I kind of counted her out, but if they have a bar specialist Baumann would compliment well, but only if her floor is usable. No?

    • Rocío Martínez López Says:

      I was curious about Skinner’s floor as well, because I couldn’t remember any of her recent floor routines and I went to YouTube. This routine is the latest I have found, from Glasgow Cup this year and had only a 13.633. She had a lot of problem with this routine, so I would say it would score lower on the Olympics. On the other hand, she had had time to improve, so she will probably present a better version now.

      • Rocío Martínez López Says:

        And this one is the latest I know from Reagan, from the Pacific ‘s. Have to say I loved it (I am a sucker of The Addams Family). She had room to improve, but her score was more than 0.5 points ahead of Skinner (14.300).

    • gymbot Says:

      Skinner used to score 14.7-14.8 and was 4th in the world on Floor in 2014, so she could be used there in a pinch or as a lead gymnast in QF. This year she hasn’t posted a score on floor above 14. For her, it’s her coach’s fault – she could score better with less difficulty.

      Regan has received 14.3, 14.6, and 14.5 for her floor routines.
      For comparison:
      Douglas has been scored 14.5, 14.55 and 14.833 this year.
      Raisman has received 14.6, 15.1, 15.5 and 15.6 this year.
      Hernandez has received 14.95 and 14.35
      Nichols has one score of 15.2
      Dowell has scored 14.825 and 14.55
      Baumann has scored 14.75
      Gowey has scored 14.2
      She makes the team for beam (BTW, she’s healthy and consistent)

      I don’t like Baumann on a team, because if the 5th gymnast does not compete bars in TF, it means putting up Biles or Raisman. At worlds in 2014, USAG put an injured Ross on floor and vault over Baumann at WC in TF – so she may not be very reliable, but on beam.

    • gymbot Says:

      Regan’s problem, ultimately, is that Laurie is just marginally better than her on each event and Laurie had more international experience and exposure as a junior. However, Regan has her health and is consistent…

      • Rocío Martínez López Says:

        I would say that Reagan is before Skinner, but Maggie or Laurie would be picked before her if they are healthy. But they don’t seem to be by the news (let’s see what happens this weekend) so her health could become her best asset if they are not sure about Maggie and Laurie. She can compliment Kocian in floor and beam and another Amanar is not really needed if Aly and Simone has theirs, so it could be a good option. I don’t see either Brenna or Bauman as more than alternates if no one else gets injuried, to be honest.

      • sanitynmotion Says:

        From this discussion, I’m getting a sense that the team could really use a “Maggie,” but might have to settle for a Reagan.

        I forgot about the Baumann/bars situation…so yeah, putting her on the team would mean either Simone not having the rest or having to use Aly – no way.

        If Maggie does end up making the team Marta will have to find reason to not use her…on beam most likely…to take away the potential of getting into the AA over Gabby. So the bar specialist would have to go up on beam over Maggie, and the bar specialist would have to score a higher score than Maggie. This is where I see Marta/Penney doing whatever they can to keep Maggie off the team. Yet they need her. Hrm.

        Or if Laurie ends up being healthy enough, maybe there’s the possibility of putting both Laurie and Maggie on the team and doing away with the notion of a bars specialist (which is what I think makes the most sense…the US doesn’t need one if we can beef up the other apparatuses).

        Especially if Maggie has the amanar, and Laurie has the beam score…Penney/Marta will definitely use Laurie on beam over Maggie and Laurie would not be used on vault.

        So here’s the question: do you guys think it possible the team could be Aly, Gabby, Simone, Maggie, Laurie?

      • Rocío Martínez López Says:

        I think it’s possible, but I find very unlikely that both of them are completely healthy (and remain so until Rio) and at her best in Nationals/Trials. I agree that USA don’t really need a bars specialist. And Martha likes to take specialists to the big competitions to have more chances at medals in event finals and the only other specialist with chances at individual finals that she can take is Kocian (and even in her case it is doubtful. Last year’s final was a joke and the chinese are pulling out big guns this year). All the possible medals in event finals would be on Simone and Aly’s heads, as I don’t think that Gabby could take one.

      • gymbot Says:

        I like your team of Aly, Gabby, Simone, Maggie and Laurie, because it includes Maggie.

        Per my comments above in a different thread, the team gets the most points in TF for adding Locklear or Kocian. If they want one of the gymnasts to be an all arounder, then Kocian and Hernandez make the most sense in terms of best TF score. But, after adding Locklear, the differences in points are measured in tenths… so it could be anyone.

        The olympics are 4 up 3 count in quals, so in QF, they could have all AA gymnasts compete AA and see how they place, or they could replace Raisman or Nichols on bars with the bars specialist. Nichols would be a threat to Gabby or Raisman in the AA, and a threat to Raisman to get into floor finals. They would have to pick which gymnasts to do AA in QF however, so if she doesn’t get to do AA in QF, she wont threaten Aly. All hypotheticals today.

      • Rocío Martínez López Says:

        If Maggie has regained her potential from 2015 and does the AA, she would be the second AAer in the final, because her scores where higher than Aly’s and Gabby’s. I don’t think that Martha would leave Gabby out of all the apparatuses, so Aly would be threatened by Maggie the most, because USA likes to have three potential AAers to qualify in Olympics and Martha knows that Aly weak bars have taken her out of the medals in the past, so Maggie would have more possibilities if Gabby were to be left out by the two per country rule. In any case, I think that Martha would take one specialist for the team final, so she can boost the team scores and have a chance of more medals at events finals, so I have doubts that she would let four AAers to compete.

      • gymbot Says:

        Sorry, I wish I could edit my last statement for clarity:

        “But after adding Kocian* the difference in points are measured in tenths… so it could be anyone.”

        Both Maggie and Laurie could threaten Raisman or Douglas for the AA, but Maggie can threaten Raisman for floor finals as well.

        For qualifying they’d have to choose who competes AA ahead of time, as it’s 4 up 3 count. If the UB specialist competes in qualifying, Nichols or Raisman would not do AA in QF… so Nichols may not necessarily threaten for the AA final if she doesn’t get the chance to compete in the first place.

      • sanitynmotion Says:

        I love this discussion guys.

        Here’s my thinking though – about the AA.

        In Rio, we have a situation where the women’s AA competition field is relatively weak. Such that the second US female will likely place – I would say “definitely” place if they just hit all 4 routines.

        TPTB will do whatever it takes to ensure Gabby gets that second AA slot. That’s my thinking. They will not even allow for a Maggie or an Aly to even try and take that away. They know that Gabby making podium 2 Olympics in a row is $$$$$$ for USAG. So that’s what’s gonna happen.

        In a way, it sucks for Simone. She’s so awesome, yet she’s leaps and bounds ahead of anyone else. And for Gabby to place second behind her…no 4-year fan is going to understand how much better Simone is than Gabby.

        I can’t think of anyone from any other country who is likely to knock off the 2nd American from silver. Iordache/Ponor – yikes. Injured or not likely to even compete AA (even if Ponor has a bar set, she’d be lucky to score a 13).

        Russia – Musty is iffy on at least 2 events and I can’t think of anyone else going for it – they all seem very inconsistent. No Komova either.

        China – might have a surprise, but it’s China. They tend to freak out at major comps not in their country.

        Great Britain? A Downie? Still not even close to the US caliber.

        I’m seriously like “guys help me.” Very high probability that the second US female will take silver in the AA, and USAG wants that scenario most.

      • H Says:

        I dont see how Maggie can threaten Raisman for the floor final. Maggie has beaten her once when Aly had uncharacteristic mistakes. Maggie is now (hopefully) back from an injury and Raisman has had one year more to fin tune her floor.

      • Rocío Martínez López Says:

        I know, I was thinking if Martha could prefer Aly to Maggie in the AA because of Aly’s bars. Then, in quals, Maggie would do bars and Kocian would substitute Aly. I think any of them would outscore Gabby in the prelims right now but I am not that sure that Maggie could threaten Aly’s position in floor final. I know that Maggie has a good floor and that she was bronze last year, but I think that Aly’s usual floor is more powerful and she has improved, in my opinion, since last worlds. In any case, I think it would depend mostly on injuries. Maybe Maggie would not be healthy enough to do all apparatus or not ready to do all her former difficulty and that would take the decision out of Martha’s hands.

      • H Says:

        Regarding AA. I think both Steve Penny and Marthe prefer Aly over Gabby. And Aly is getting a lot of airtime …I think they will do what they can to put all 3 AA up in qualification.
        A new junior or a Maggie just returned from injury will not be chosen for that imo.

      • Rocío Martínez López Says:

        About the other contenders, it’s difficult to say right now. For Russia, it will be Melnikova, who is pretty strong (not Simone’s strong, but Aly or Gabby strong yeah) and much more regular than her teammates. She was the unnoficial European Champion by scores. Second AAer would be Musty, who have possibilities if she upgrades her floor with high rates bars and beam and regains her DTY, but is not a menace to the second american girl (SAG in the future) with the floor she presented at the Europeans, no way. In Russia, the most likely team will be Musty, Melnikova, Paseka, probably Kapitonova and a fifth spot to be determined pending of Afan’s state. If Afan can do her floor, she is going. If not, they might send Dasha or Shegoulnova.

        Last year’s Iordache would have a lot of chances to knock off the SAG, but we don’t know her current status and it is possible for Ponor to be going instead of her, so she is a big “if” right now. We will have to wait at least until next week (Romanian’s nationals are 1-3 of July) to know if she is still in the mix or not, but I think not. In any case, last year’s Iordache, the last reference we have about her, could be considered.

        The Chinese girls are throwing pretty awesome tricks this year. They are being secretive, Chusong is the current champion with a huge 60.200 (we know it is a home competition, but still). I think she can be a menace to the SAG and I would love for her to get an AA medal, honestly.

        In Europe, apart from the Russian and Iordache (if Ponor is elected, she doesn’t have a shot in the AA, even if she comes with UB), Downie is the other options. It seems unlikely, but she did really well in the Europeans with huge scores. in vault, bars and floor and a good beam, if she stays on it. If she has a good day and others not, she can get one of the medals for grabs (because gold is already Simone’s).

        So there are contenders, even if we are not sure of their status yet. If the SAG is Aly, for instance, her bars could have her relegated, as well as her vault if she haven’t fixed the problems she had at the beggining of the year. In the same way, Gabby’s floor is weak, doesn’t have an Amanar and can’t compensate for it with her bars and beam because her scores there are lower or similar than the Russians or the Chinese. So the medal for the SAG, regardless of who she is, is more than possible, but it is not assured in my opinion.

      • gymbot Says:

        Maybe Steingruber, she needs to hit her beam though. I think Shang has the best chances though, her 60+ score is from Chinese nationals where the scoring is on the lower end – she might have had some bonuses from sticking and some skills on floor.

      • gymtruthteller Says:

        She also needs to hit bars

      • Rocío Martínez López Says:

        Giulia is a possibility, but her UB and beam kill her chances. Even when she manages to stay on, it is very difficult for her to compete with people who have plus 6 in every apparatus. But if other people fail, she will be ready to reap the rewards for her consistency. I think that Chusong have very real possibilities of a medal if she hits and Melnikova/Aliya (again, depending on Aliya’s floor improvement) can snatch a bronze. So the SAG haven’t her medal assured and Martha must know that, so I think she would pick the third AAer to fight with Gabby that could have more chances to success if the two per county rule leaves Gabby out. And I am not so sure that Gabby could get an AA medal against Chusong and the Russians if they hit, so it could end being more interesting than we thought.

    • gymtruthteller Says:

      Baumann has never been consistent I wouldn’t count on her at all.

  7. H Says:

    GTT. I have been thinking of you. I hope that you will have a great Holliday this summer:-) Enjoying a pause from your work.
    And I am quite sure that even we dont say it often enough, we really appreciate all your blogpost and that you keep up with us;-)

    • gymtruthteller Says:

      There is no pause from my work in the summer but man I wish there was:) Thanks and i know you guys appreciate the blog. I appreciate you being here.

  8. dianajc99 Says:

    USA Gym is starting to put up the PT vids

  9. Gymnast41 Says:

    and how is she one of the main faces of USA gymnastics..? https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7PQ0pEvF4Ao

    • sanitynmotion Says:

      Lots of lost in thought “what should I say” moments…

      What should I say, but still come off confident and strong.

      Yet she comes off as overconfident and pulling at whatever phrases she can connect to make it sound like what she’s saying makes sense, or sounds good.

      A lot of hot air.

      She wants Marta to know she can “be counted on when it counts” because that’s how she trains. But hey, it was the smart way for her to come back.

    • gymtruthteller Says:

      HEY. Do you wanna be banned? You can’t just put up a video with no warning that its a Gabby video. I’m pretty sure that’s a rule of mine tho I don’t remember which rule. Seriously tho you made me listen to Gabby. That’s just mean. I’ve been avoiding her for 6 years:) Oh and she is one of the faces of the sport. It’s sickening but true.

      • Gymnast41 Says:

        LOL I had to🙂 this was just one of the worst interviews I’ve ever see of her

      • gymtruthteller Says:

        I have only watched one interview of Gabby’s in the last 4 years. Her arrogance and attitude and phony tone are too much for me to listen to so I don’t. Everyone else talks about if they make the team and Gabby shows pictures of herself getting flowers for making the world team BEFORE THE CAMP even took place. It’s all too much for me.lol I watched like 2 seconds of that video I accidently clicked on and there that same arrogant fake sound was. She hasn’t changed in 4 years. I also watched the interview she did after worlds when she was asked about how much higher Simone’s scores were than her and I forget what she said I just remember the arrogance and phony tone. She isn’t going away but that doesn’t make me wish she still wouldn’t just go away.

      • gymtruthteller Says:

        I have only watched one interview of Gabby’s in the last 4 years. Her arrogance and attitude and phony tone are too much for me to listen to so I don’t. Everyone else talks about if they make the team and Gabby shows pictures of herself getting flowers for making the world team BEFORE THE CAMP even took place. It’s all too much for me.lol I watched like 2 seconds of that video I accidently clicked on and there that same arrogant fake sound was. She hasn’t changed in 4 years. I also watched the interview she did after worlds when she was asked about how much higher Simone’s scores were than her and I forget what she said I just remember the arrogance and phony tone. She isn’t going away but that doesn’t make me wish she still wouldn’t just go away.

    • Tortuga Says:

      She pauses so long to decide what her answer should be. I think she knows she doesn’t come off well in interviews and is trying to “think” before answering. But these huge pauses look worse! This might be the first interview i’ve seen of hers that she doesn’t talk about proving her “haters” wrong.

  10. dianajc99 Says:

    Does this Double layout scare anyone else?

  11. dianajc99 Says:

    Is this new?? something tells me I would have bitched about her using Khorkina’s music.

    • Ilanchik20 Says:

      That’s a new floor routine but she did another Khorkina routine in 2014, I think.

      I think someone is trying to paint Maddie as the European lines gymnast with the music choice. Marta always likes to have one on the team.

      I much prefer Regan over Laurie. If we have to tolerate GD, I hope to at least get Regan too.

      • dianajc99 Says:

        she too short for that.

      • Gymnast41 Says:

        Is it just me cause I really can’t stand laurie’s new floor routine by any means…love her on beam, but floor is just too much for me

      • G Says:

        I’d rather have Ragan too, by a long shot. I don’t like Laurie’s floor at all and I find her really clunky on bars. Her beam is fine but overall, I much prefer Ragan. She’s my new girl to root for so we’ll see how that goes. First it was Norah, then it was Bailie lol so hopefully I’m not bad luck.

      • gymmom2 Says:

        Anyone else struck by the fact that Kocian is over 19 and doesn’t look like she has gone through puberty yet. Maybe that is part of why she is so fragile. Not sure at what point amenorrhea starts causing bone loss, but its well documented.

  12. dianajc99 Says:

    Oh..GD looks weak on her signature event.

    • gymbot Says:

      looks rough or smart training? I can’t tell. She’s added some tenths here and there on beam and floor – maybe she’s finally feeling the pressure to make the team

    • Gymnast41 Says:

      She’s always bad at PT, but not this bad. Her upgrades look okay as well as her nomanar. We’ve seen her do that bar routine perfect in competition many times, so maybe it’s just a bad practice. Or, her consistency is suffering due to her focusing on those upgrades

  13. KG Says:

    Ugh. That gabby interview. No point in me going on about it, because most if not all of us here are thinking it. Watch Aly’s interview and compare and contrast the two. What a difference.

    Besides the three, I think a healthy Maggie and a healthy Kocian would be Marta’s first choices. I think a healthy Laurie and maybe a healthy locklear would be Steve’s picks. I don’t personally think Ragan will get a spot on the team, but would be a shoe in for an alternate spot. The only reason I think she’s got a chance on top 5 is because she’s healthy and consistent. Locklear and Kocian are fragile, and Laurie and Maggie are coming off injuries.
    But in reality I think it will be Maggie/Laurie (based mostly on who is healthiest) and Kocian.

    But if Maggie has an amanar, I think that will be the clincher. While the amanar might be downgraded, it isn’t gone yet. I still think Marta would take a healthy Maggie with an amanar over a healthy Laurie, just to get a full set of Amanars.

    And though I’ve said it before and been wrong, I don’t think she’d take skinner for just vault. She might have a shot at a vault medal, but that’s it (and it would be far from a shoe-in of any kind) and she could easily take Maggie with an amanar and get more Bang for her buck since she’s useable anywhere. Skinner stumbles through her floor, which doesn’t score competitively anyways these days.

    Kocian or locklear are the only ones with any shot at an individual medal besides Simone and Aly. I still think she’ll take Kocian. I think her 4 way tie gold sealed her spot, as crazy as that sounds. Judges liked her well enough, and if there is a lucky fall or 3 from other teams (China), then maybe she’d have a shot at a bronze. Plus, since she’s from woga, they can mention nastia a thousand times, so nbc will be all over that.

  14. tennisgrl456 Says:

    My thoughts on the podium training vids and what they mean for the bubble gymnasts/team selection thus far:

    -Maggie looks a LOT better than I thought she would. Not only in terms of performance but in terms of confidence. I think agree with whoever posted above that a team of the trio plus Maggie and Maddie would be Marta’s first choice.

    -I love Ragan but bars are just not her event at this point. I think if she grows a few inches she could improve greatly but her lack of height/inability to work effectively with the lack of height makes her routine a bit of an eye sore. If she does happen to clean up floor a bit and knock it out of the park on beam, they are going to NEED to take a bars specialist. Since Ragan excels on beam, should she make the team, Locklear as the 5th member would be a no brainer (and honestly just stop pretending like they would ever use her on anything BUT bars). The only issue would be the Amanar situation. Do they trust Gabby to have her Amanar back? Do they go with her DTY and hope that Locklear can help make up ground in UB? This would also mean that Simone would have to go up in TF on all 4 events. I so want Ragan to have a spot on the team but bc of her bars I just have a hard time seeing that happening.

    -Laurie- Her bars looked clunky and her beam had it’s share of wobbles. As a first year senior with no WC experience she kind of had to put herself out there to stay relevant but I think Maggie took the smarter route in sitting out/rehabbing her knee injury.

    -Locklear- I don’t think they have podium training vids of her but the US could send her plus Biles, Douglas, and Raisman and win gold. The only problem is is that she can really ONLY be used on one event in team finals (or two if you want a shitty beam routine). At least Maroney could have theoretically have performed crappy beam/bar routines. Ashton has no floor/vault. The selection committee is going to have to weight risk vs. reward. She could potentially add the most onto the team total out of all of the gymnasts competing for the final two spots but if one of the other athletes gets hurt after the comp starts, they could be SOOL (depending on who gets the second “open” spot).

    -Maddie- Her bars look good. She definitely has far more form issues than Locklear but she’s not totally useless beyond bars. If Marta can manage to keep her intact, I think she’d be a safer choice for the team.

    Obviously this depends on who breaks/what Maggie is able to show in competition, but I think the most logical team choice would be (including the three locks): Biles, Raisman, GD, Nichols, Kocian. BUT, I can see politics/the fact that her bones are dust resulting in Kocian being swapped for Locklear. If this happens, the real question is is whether Marta would pull Aly or Maggie off of bars in qualifications. It would make sense to pull Aly, but if they pull Maggie, there is less of a chance of GD’s AA final spot being jeopardized.

    This is what I would guess the line ups would be for this hypothetical team:

    Vault: (GD) Maggie, Aly, Simone
    Bars: (Raisman) Biles, GD, Locklear (with Nichols subbed in for Biles in TF, screwing her out of a chance to compete for an AA spot like last year)
    Beam: GD/Nichols, Aly, Simone
    Floor: (GD), Nichols, Aly, Simone

    • gymbot Says:

      I can see the amanar coming for GD, she’s made small adjustments to her other routines to eke out more points. Maybe she doesn’t feel as secure as the second gymnast anymore. She only has a slight edge over the other AA gymnasts right now, but these little tenths could make the difference for her.

      I think Maggie is second in line after Laurie. Especially if GD continues to upgrade vault and floor, Nichols’ strengths would then be less desirable on the team.

  15. Exgymgurl Says:

    I don’t think locklear is making the team. No PT vids of her were published not a good sign. I think Maggie will do bars in qual. MArta doesn’t want Aly falling on bars in qualifications. It just looks bad, and it doesn’t push Simone and gabby to be their best in qualification. Pretty sure Aly’s been told she won’t do bars period except as backup.

    • tennisgrl456 Says:

      I personally would love for Maggie to do bars in quals (and simply MAKE the team), but I’m wondering if Marta would risk giving her the 3rd AA spot in quals. If Kocian does end up making the team I guess that they could put her up on beam in prelims over Maggie (even though Maggie is far better on beam), or maybe they are leaning towards no bars specialist at the moment. If they bring Laurie or Ragan then they can leave Maggie off of beam in quals and they can have their GD/Simone “show down” in AA finals.

    • JAS4 Says:

      I wonder if Ashton had a rough podium training session and they didn’t post her videos to hide it because she seems to be one of Marta’s favorites.

      • H Says:

        I think that Marta secretly prefer Locklear. And in the last interview she really stressed that the UB gymnast needed to have high e-score. I also think Marta would like to have Lauren on the team because of her “style”. Like US need to have at least one “elegant” gymnast. I think Marta wants both Locklear and Lauren, and Maggie (Maggie because of work ethic and consistency). And that is Marta’s real conundrum because she nows she cannot leave Gabby home- in other words Marta is one spot short.

      • gymbot Says:

        Skinner’s rough podium performances weren’t broadcasted in past either, could be standard PT posting rules

    • H Says:

      I refuse to think that Aly or (Loklear) have lost the chance before even started. Classic is supposed to be “warm up” And if Aly doesn’t do AA his weekend its not much exciting left … And we never got to see a real AA battle between the top 4-5 gymnasts.

      • Tortuga Says:

        Aly isn’t losing her chance. I think she will definitely be on the team she just may not do bars/AA in qualification. I think she needs to hit every routine between now and end of trials to show she’s consistent enough to not fall in qualifications. If falls in qualification like worlds, she gives it to GD and shits on the opportunity she got over another all around gymnast, probably Laurie/ Maggie.

      • H Says:

        @Tortuga I agree that she doesn’t miss her team spot, but I would like for her to finally succeed in the AA:-)

      • Tortuga Says:

        I’d love Aly to get that second AA spot and make the podium, I’m just worried about her falling:/. I’d like her or Maggie to knock GD out.

      • sanitynmotion Says:

        Aly’s had so many shots at the AA, and each time she messes up when it matters (in finals). Yet if it’s between her and GD for that second slot, they should both be able to duke it out against each other. If only Aly’s amanar were cleaner, Gabby’s bars wouldn’t be that much of a factor (in pairing them 2 against each other). Aly’s beam is usually solid but this quad it’s been iffy – hopefully she’s changed it. Gabby’s beam is usually shaky but for whatever reason, she gets non-stop gifts on that apparatus.

        At the end of the day though I’d really like to see Maggie get a crack at that AA. She’s earned it, and she deserves it.

        This is where I almost wish the old rules were in play for these Games. The top 5 AA gymnasts make the team. That would be awesome. We’d see them duke it out against each other at the same time, all 4 apparatuses.

  16. Case Says:

    I’m struggling to get interested in Rio this year. The storylines are all predetermined – Gabby vs Simone for the throne, Aly as the accomplished red headed stepsister with an outside shot, and two up and comers just so lucky to be there. I’m just so bleh about it all.

    PS – Hope all of you peeps are well. Keep fighting the good fight, GTT.

    • gymtruthteller Says:

      I agree with you about this all being boring and keeping the good fight is had these days because I won’t watch NBC’s coverage ( can’t find my internet password to watch online) so hopefully they upload videos quickly.

  17. Melanie Says:

    Hopefully this is the start of more spotlight on Simone, and less spotlight on certain other people…


  18. Rocío Martínez López Says:

    I think that Aly would be the perfect specialist to compliment the UB specialist that they are probably bringing. For example, Gabby, Simone and Maggie/Laurie as the three AAers (USA always take three and I have trouble thinking this year would be different) a bar specialist (my money is on Kocian) and a person you can put anywhere but bars with high scores and a high rate of consistency. She is a floor especialist, has an Amanar and a good beam. It would fit perfectly with Kocian and would give Maggie the oportunity to fight with Gabby for the second AA spot. The second AAer doesn’t have a sure shot at the medals and Aly’s UB have taken her away from the medals in the past. Why not give her AA spot to someone who has a better chance of succeding if she hits and still retain her powerful talents for the team and floor finals? It would be a good solution, in my opinion.

    • sanitynmotion Says:

      I agree with you but I feel like USAG will INSIST that second AA’er be Gabby, come hell or high water. $$$$

      I feel like the team could be 3 AA’ers (Aly being one of them, and like you said her bars will take her out and leave GD as the 2nd one), a bar specialist, and basically a beam specialist. I say beam specialist because that 5th person will likely be relied upon mostly for beam in TF, and maybe for bars if Simone needs rest in TF. But in this situation, I don’t see the odds for Maggie being good because if you waste one spot on a bars specialist, that 5th slot needs to be usable in beam, and Maggie isn’t all that great on beam.

      I keep going back to a good situation being Simone, Aly, Gabby, Maggie, and Laurie. This way, Gabby doesn’t have to be used for beam or floor (or vault) and Simone doesn’t have to be used for bars; there’s potential for 3 amanars; and whoever of Maggie/Laurie is least injured can do floor (so we don’t have to use Gabby).

      Plus, that team is good if there’s further injury – it’s basically 5 AA’ers…

      My main point here is why the eff does USAG need a bars specialist?

      • Rocío Martínez López Says:

        I don’t think that USA needs a UB specialist. Whatever points in UB they could think they are lacking they can compensate with their floor and Amanars, so I don’t think that is really a problem. But it seems to be heading this way by the comments we are getting and because is the only shot (albeit a long one) to get an event finals medals that don’t rely on Aly or Simone. My thesis only work with Aly as an specialist, but I still think that USA would bring three AAers because it’s what they usually do. Any of the third potential AAers could grab Gabby’s spot, whatever she might be Aly or Maggie/Laurie. But I think Aly would compliment Kocian nicely if she is regarded as specialist and with her and another AAer Martha would take Gabby away from beam and floor in the Team Final and put Simone, Maggie and Aly on these apparatus with a lot of guarantees. So I think it would be a good idea. But if Aly is the third AAer, I would choose a beam/floor specialist as well at least so Gabby wouldn’t have to go in neither apparatus. And if they want to take an UB specialist for security sake, I don’t think it would improve/diminish USA’s chances in the lastest.

        Apart from Simone (AA and floor gold) and Aly (floor silver most probably) and the possibility of the second AAer taking a medal in the AA final, who other gymnasts you think that could make the team could snatch an event medal? I think that could give us some points regarding at least the fifth spot in the team. I don’t think that Skinner has a shot at vault medal with the kind of vaults we have seen this season and Kocian medal on UB is unlikely with the chinese with exercises above 7.0, Downie with a 7.1 and the Russias with 6.7s. Maybe a potential to snatch an event medal would be reason enough to bring someone to Rio that was not the most obvious possibility. But it’s just a random thought.

      • gymbot Says:

        A bars specialist is not needed, but I feel it’s fair to say they want 2 UB workers to replace Biles and Raisman (assumed to be on the team).

        So both the 4th and 5th team members should have a strong set (enter Maggie and Laurie OR the specialists… or even Dowell…)

        When you compare these athletes for bars, Locklear and Kocian score higher for the team total.

        In 2020, this problem will go away with teams of 4 AA gymnasts.

    • Melanie Says:

      I agree with your assessment. I think a team of Simone, Aly, Gabby, Maggie, and Kocian/Locklear would be reasonable. Simone, Gabby, and Maggie for AA. Maggie has earned the right to do AA. Aly has biffed nearly every meet for the past year. She has singlehandedly given Gabby the 2nd AA spot, much as I love Aly. It’s not about blame, but the fact remains that she could have dethroned Gabby (from 2nd place) multiple times and choked. Maggie proved at Worlds that she has the goods to beat Gabby. Of course, we still haven’t seen all of Maggie’s repertoire post-injury, of which the biggest questions are her major floor tumbling and her Amanar, but I think your team makes sense.

      • Ilanchik20 Says:

        I think Marta will take a bars specialist, if only to increase EF medal potential.

        If Maggie goes, all medals will EF medals rest on Simone and Aly.

        If Laurie goes, she could maybe get a beam medal. With Locklear, you could also maybe get a bars bronze.

        So I think my team is Simone, Aly, GD, Laurie and Locklear

        Marta will want to take one first-year senior so USAG has someone to “lead” the team next year:

      • Melanie Says:

        I think if GD has an Amanar and Maggie doesn’t, you’re probably right. If Maggie has a decent Amanar, I’m not sure they’ll leave her behind. Marta loves a full vault arsenal.

      • JK Says:

        I agree with Ilanchik – I think Marta/Steve want to take home as many medals as possible, which is why I think they’re going to take an UB specialist. If the Olympic judges are anything like the Worlds judges, Kocian (or Locklear) could make the podium. I don’t see Downie getting big E-scores, despite having a high D-score. Same with the Chinese gymnasts.

        As of right now, I think the team will be: Simone, Gabby, Aly, Kocian, Laurie.

        Simone will dominate 4/5 of the events, winning gold in AA, Vault, Beam, Floor. Gabby will be gifted AA silver. Aly could get silver on Floor. Laurie could medal on Beam. And Kocian could medal on Bars.

        I’m so ready for this quad to be over. Hopefully next quad will be better and more interesting to watch.

      • Rocío Martínez López Says:

        I have problems thinking that Kocian could get a medal (if nobody falls and she stays on, of course). Downie had in the EF in the European Championships a E score of 8.600 with a 6.9 of difficulty. She missed something, so she can have a 7.1 difficulty easily. Two chinese have 7.0-7.1 difficulty score and Dasha has a 6.7 with a 8.766. Musty will probably improve as well. Kocian, in the World Championships, had only a 6.6 with a 8.766. With that score, Downie would still be several tenths ahead of her. Musty will probably improve and the chinese usually have a very good execution score, so I don’t think that Kocian has a shot at the medals in UB if everybody else hits.

  19. dianajc99 Says:


    I bet this rubs nastia the wrong way

  20. Melanie Says:

    Watching some of the juniors, specifically Riley McCusker. What is with the horrible choreography from MG Elite? Their girls all seem to have nice form and lines, but they ruin it with ridiculously awful choreo and BWS (broken wrist syndrome). This girl takes the cake.

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